Fire EruptingTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 33.9% | -8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +6.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.3% | -17.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cemetery Sentry | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Discordia, Harp of Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |